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The job market is continually evolving, with various professions experiencing growth or decline. Understanding the job outlook for your current or prospective career is essential to navigate these changes effectively.
Key Takeaways:
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Job outlook is assessed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to project employment changes by profession.
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The BLS updates job outlooks every two years in the Occupational Outlook Handbook.
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Familiarity with job outlook can guide you in making informed career decisions.
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If your job has a negative outlook, consider exploring different career paths, which may involve new training.
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Job outlook reflects the rate of change; for a complete picture, consider the anticipated number of jobs added as well.
What Is Job Outlook?
Job outlook refers to the expected changes in employment for specific occupations over a defined period, typically ten years. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) collects and analyzes extensive data to project employment changes in various occupations.
Every two years, the BLS publishes this information in the Occupational Outlook Handbook, accompanied by supplementary articles that provide insights into job growth and diverse occupations.
Job outlooks are categorized based on predicted rates of change, which the BLS determines using the following criteria:
| Changing employment between 2021 and 2031 | |
|---|---|
| If the statement reads— | Employment is projected to— |
| Grow much faster than the average | increase 11% or more |
| Grow faster than the average | increase 8% to 10% |
| Grow about as fast as the average | increase 4% to 7% |
| Grow slower than the average | increase 2% to 3% |
| Little or no change | decrease of 1% to increase of 1% |
| Decline | decrease 1% or more |
Why Is Job Outlook Important for Your Career?
Understanding job outlook is crucial for several reasons:
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Job outlook can refine your job search. When considering a new career, job outlook helps narrow your focus. For example, researching the job outlook for a software developer could reveal a projected growth rate of 21%, indicating a robust job market in that field.
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Job outlook can uncover new opportunities. Awareness of job outlook can lead you to discover fast-growing career options that you may not have previously considered.
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Job outlook provides location-specific insights. If you’re relocating, understanding the job outlook in your new area can assist in your job search. Each state has unique demands; researching these factors can ease your transition.
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Job outlook keeps you informed about your current profession. If you are already in a career, monitoring its job outlook helps you anticipate opportunities or prepare for potential challenges.
In all cases, analyzing job outlook offers a way to assess your professional experience and skills against the broader job market landscape. This knowledge can reveal various opportunities awaiting you.
What To Do If Your Job Has a Poor Outlook
If your career interest shows a poor outlook, consider these options:
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Reevaluate your interests. Take the time to reflect on what draws you to a particular career. If the outlook is discouraging, it might be worth exploring other fields that excite you more.
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Explore similar careers. If your current career has a poor outlook, search for roles that require overlapping skills but have more promising projections.
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Invest in skill development. To transition to a different career, you may need to acquire new skills. Explore training, certifications, or educational programs that could open new doors.
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Acknowledge the current job outlook. Sometimes, it’s necessary to accept the reality of a poor job outlook. With this understanding, you can strategize to enhance your chances of success in a challenging field.
Limitations of Job Outlook
While job outlook is a valuable metric, it has its limitations:
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Job outlook is based on estimates. Predictions can be unreliable. Rapid advancements in technology and automation can render certain jobs obsolete while simultaneously creating new opportunities.
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Job outlook reflects job supply only. It estimates the projected supply of jobs without addressing the demand. If fewer individuals enter a field with minimal growth, competition for roles can decrease.
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Job outlook is best used with job prospects. Understanding job prospects—how many job seekers are competing for available openings—can complement job outlook data and inform your career planning more effectively.
Job Outlook FAQ
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What is the average job outlook, and what constitutes a good job outlook? The average job outlook ranges from 4% to 7%. A good job outlook typically exceeds 8%. These figures represent rates of change and do not indicate the number of jobs expected to be created.
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Which job has the highest job outlook? Nurse practitioners currently lead with a projected growth of 46%, resulting in about 118,600 new jobs. Following closely are wind turbine technicians with a 44% growth outlook. However, it’s essential to note that rapid growth does not always equate to a high number of job openings.
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Which job has the lowest job outlook? Word processors and typists face the steepest decline, with a projected decrease of 36.4% over the next decade. Other roles with low outlooks include parking enforcement workers, nuclear power reactor operators, and watch/clock repairers.
References
Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Occupational Outlook Handbook.” Accessed on September 19, 2022.
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Author
Chris Kolmar is a co-founder of Zippia and the editor-in-chief of the Zippia career advice blog. He has hired over 50 people in his career, been hired five times, and wants to help you land your next job. His research has been featured on the New York Times, Thrillist, VOX, The Atlantic, and a host of local news. More recently, he's been quoted on USA Today, BusinessInsider, and CNBC.
Expert
Matt Warzel a President of a resume writing firm (MJW Careers, LLC) with 15+ years of recruitment, outplacement, career coaching and resume writing experience. Matt is also a Certified Professional Resume Writer (CPRW) and Certified Internet Recruiter (CIR) with a Bachelor of Science in Business Administration (Marketing Focus) from John Carroll University.
